An insatiable need for biofuel
In the midst of the deepest recession for decades, bioenergy is bucking the downward trend. Swedish manufacturers of biofuel pellets are predicting a 15 percent production increase during 2009. In the longer term, the need for biofuel in Europe is greater than the supply.
This is the message from the conference on forest residues that marked the start of the Elmia Wood 2009 forestry fair in Jönköping, Sweden. The organiser was the Swedish Bioenergy Association (Svebio) and the theme was slash: branches, tops and other residues from forest harvesting. The speakers were some of Sweden’s leading researchers and industry representatives.
20% is a lot
One of the main issues in the debate was whether there is enough biomass to meet the European Union’s goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by the year 2020. The clear answer from the conference was “no”, which is good news for the forest industry. It means that the market for biofuel is basically insatiable.
At the end of the conference, Albin Andersson, energy coordinator for Södra, the association of south Swedish forest owners, explained the practical ramifications of the EU goal.
Södra’s goal is to produce, within the near future, energy and fuel with a combined energy output of 6,200 GWh. Södra is only one of several players of this size in Sweden. Within Sweden, the EU’s energy and emissions targets will undoubtedly be met with good margin to spare. But what is the situation for Europe as a whole?
The forest is only a part
“The EU’s climate goal means that 3,000 TWh must be replaced by renewable energy,” Andersson explained. “If we shut down the entire European forest industry and use round timber as fuel, that will give us 500 TWh.”
In 2005, renewable energy accounted for 8.5 percent of the entire energy balance. That share must go up to 20 percent, which is an increase of 1,725 TW. Bioenergy alone cannot replace fossil fuels. Energy from the forests is not even sufficient to meet the EU goal of 20 percent renewable energy.
From a larger social perspective, this situation can be described as a problem. But for the rapidly growing industry which is producing energy from forest residues, this is good news. The market is essentially insatiable – something that is not a disadvantage from a producer’s perspective. In this scenario, the current economic crisis is not relevant and in the longer term the need for biofuel will continually increase.
The supply of fuel pellets in Sweden is forecast to increase by 15 percent in 2009. There is no more obvious way than that to illustrate the overall future trend.